Polling

[rhythmaning]

Well, that was interesting.

I have just been to vote. I always feel privileged to be able to vote, and view it as a duty to do so.

There was a BBC/Sky ipsos Mori exit poll outside. I have never been polled on my vote before, neither during a campaign nor in an exit poll. It must mean they believe my constituency - Edinburgh N & Leith - is one to watch. Or else they are polling every seat in Scotland, since they are all likely to be interesting. Though presumably not every polling station, since that would be a hugely intensive activity. I wonder if my ward is seen as being representative of the constituency.

The exit poll was remarkably similar to the real poll: they had a cardboard ballot box and a yellow voting paper with all the candidates on it and boxes to tick. It was somewhat though not totally private.

I couldn't bring myself to tick UKIP even in an imaginary, fictional poll. I wanted to skew the exit poll results, but I just couldn't do it.

My seat is currently Labour, but the latest Ashcroft poll has something like SNP 40%, Labour 30%, and LibDems, Green and Conservative on about 10% each. I voted tactically for Labour; it'll be interesting to see how many other of those LibDems, Greens and Conservatives switch to Labour, just for the day.

Comments

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

Two comments made to me today lead me to fear that UKIP have done rather better than I thought they would. I hope I'm being misled.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

I certainly hope not!

[matgb]

Exit polling is weird, but the methodology is sound—they don't normally do much in Scotland as it's normally fairly predictable, but they've had to this time for obvious reasons.

It's not your seat, or even your ward. It's your Polling District (there are 4 districts in each Calderdale Ward, no idea about Scottish districts but Edinburgh website might have details somewhere). Basically they need to select a chunk of polling districts across the country that they think are demographically representative and politically representative.

I studied the methodology quite thoroughly, but it was, gods, 15 years ago now, it hasn't changed much, doesn't need to, they got 2010 close to spot on once you factored in The Stupid Factor (why yes Lembit I am thinking of you)

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

Interesting. Thanks!

[andrewducker]

I am currently hoping that they have made a massive cock-up...