Democratic Dashboard.

[rhythmaning]

The Democratic Dashboard gives information about your local constituency, including previous general, regional and local election results and the results of local polling (if available, presumably). It's a project based at the LSE, though not necessarily an LSE project!

In 2010, where I live was a two way marginal, between LibDems (34%) and Labour (38%), with SNP and Conservatives on 10% and 15% respectively. It has been a Labour seat since at least 1992.

The latest poll shows Labour on 30%, which has been pretty constant since January (32%). The SNP have pulled ahead, from 23% in January to either 39% or 43% now, depending on which chart you believe. This gain seems to be largely at the expense of the LibDems, who have gone from 16% to 6% in that time.

The discrepancy between the charts make me wonder whether one is showing polling for Scotland rather than my seat.

Either way, to beat the SNP, all LibDem and Tory voters would need to vote Labour. Interestingly, the Greens, who I think have a strong candidate, are polling only 6%, down from 8%.

Comments

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

If all the Lib Dem and Tory voters vote for the Labour Party doesn't that make then Labour voters?

This is not a flippant question.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

No, you're absolutely right. I should have said something like "all the people who identify as LibDem and Tory voters..." or people who have said they'll vote LibDem and Tory - people like me, who are going against their instincts and principles to vote tactically.

I have been working over the last five or six weeks to help secure a LibDem victory in Edingburgh West, but I am planning to vote Labour in Edinburgh North & Leith. In that time, I have probably spoken to about 20 LibDem activists in Edinburgh N&L - and NOT ONE has said they'll be voting LibDem. NOT ONE.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

That's a worrying trend.

Whilst I am drawn to the idea of an SNP yellow out in Scotland - for one election - it's not something I'd like to see become the norm.

But I don't see how the Holyrood election and the local elections the year after are going to be less of an emphatic result for the SNP.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

I think it will be easier to hold the SNP to account for their actions in parliament. Plus the proportionality means there will be other representation.